This book provides a comprehensive and systematic review of most of the literature on the univariate analysis of trends in economic time series. It also provides original insights and criticisms on some of the topics that are addressed. Its chapter structure is as follows. 1 Introduction...

This paper replicates Leybourne et al. (1998), who propose a Dickey-Fuller type test for unit root that is most appropriate when there is reason to suspect the possibility of deterministic structural change in the series. We find that our replicated results are quite similar to the authors'...

The aim of this study is to search for a better optimization algorithm in applying unit root tests that inherit nonlinear models in the testing process. The algorithms analyzed include Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno (BFGS), Gauss-Jordan, Simplex, Genetic, and Extensive Grid-Search. The...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...