At the heart of the copula methodology in statistics is the idea of separating marginal distributions from the dependence structure. However, as shown in this paper, this separation is not to be taken for granted: in the model where the copula is known and the marginal distributions are...

AMS 2000 subject classifications: Primary 62G05, 62G30, 62G32; secondary 60G70, 60F05, 60F17, JEL: C13, C14.

Integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) processes have been introduced to model nonnegative integer-valued phenomena that evolve over time. The distribution of an INAR(p) process is essentially described by two parameters: a vector of autoregression coefficients and a probability distribution on...

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of 12 time series methods for short-term (day-ahead) spot price forecasting in auction-type electricity markets. The methods considered include standard autoregression (AR) models, their extensions – spike preprocessed, threshold and semiparametric...