Speculators exert more and more influence on prices on world exchange markets. Often the result of this is a formation of so-called “bubbles” with subsequent shocks to national and global economy. The purpose of speculators is earnings in a relatively short period of time using the...

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...