Search Results - subject:"Normal Distribution"

On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures: The case of Italy

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Alessi, Lucia; Barigozzi, Matteo; … - 2007

In this paper we explore the statistical properties of the distributions of consumption expenditures for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989-2004. Goodness-of-fit tests show that household aggregate (and age-conditioned) consumption distributions are not log-normal. Rather,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328408

What can probability forecasts tell us about inflation risks?

García, Juan Angel; Manzanares, Andrés - 2007

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604871

Reliability and Rationing Cost in a Power System

Pillai, N. Vijayamohanan - eSocialSciences - 2007

welfare economics. The study is substantiated by fitting a normal distribution to the daily internal maximum demand of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005528285

Quantifying risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts

Knüppel, Malte; Tödter, Karl-Heinz - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2007

This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non-parametric procedures are developed. The former are based on a class of asymmetrically weighted normal distributions whereas the latter employ asymmetric bootstrap simulations. Both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083201

On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures. The case of Italy.

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Alessi, Lucia; Barigozzi, Matteo; … - Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Scuola … - 2007

, Income Distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Gibrat’s Law. JEL Classiflcation: D3, D12, C12. ⁄Corresponding Author. Address …, the EP boils down to the normal distribution. In that case, the correspondent HCE distribution would be log-normal. If b … typically thinner but more dispersed than the left tail. This implies that a two-parameter, log-normal distribution is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005650092

Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programson Expectations; The Case of Transition Economies

Imam, Patrick A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768769

Operational Risk; The Sting is Still in the Tail But the Poison Dependson the Dose

Jobst, Andreas - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper investigates the generalized parametric measurement methods of aggregate operational risk in compliance with the regulatory capital standards for operational risk in the New Basel Capital Accord ("Basel II"). Operational risk is commonly defined as the risk of loss resulting from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768778

Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels

Lyhagen, Johan; Österholm, Pär; Carlsson, Mikael - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper applies the maximum likelihood panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007) to test the strong PPP hypothesis using data for the G7 countries. This method is robust in several important dimensions relative to previous methods, including the well-known issue of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768931

The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations

Kisinbay, Turgut - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769228

Lucas vs. Lucas; On Inequality and Growth

Cordoba, Juan Carlos; Verdier, Geneviève - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

Lucas (2004) asserts that "Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution... The potential for improving the lives of poor people by finding different ways of distributing current...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599308