The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial...

Operational risks inside banks and insurance companies is currently an important task. The computation of a risk measure associated to these risks lies on the knowledge of the so-called Loss Distribution Function. Traditionally this distribution function is computed via the Panjer algorithm...

Operational risk management inside banks and insurance companies is an important task. The computation of a risk measure associated to these kinds of risks lies in the knowledge of the so-called loss distribution function (LDF). Traditionally, this LDF is computed via Monte Carlo simulations or...

Operational risks inside banks and insurance companies is currently an important task. The computation of a risk measure associated to these risks lies on the knowledge of the so-called Loss Distribution Function. Traditionally this distribution function is computed via the Panjer algorithm...

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

When simulating trajectories by integrating time-continuous car-following models, standard integration schemes such as the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method (RK4) are rarely used while the simple Euler method is popular among researchers. We compare four explicit methods both analytically and...