This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the...

This paper theoretically examines the effect of labor migration on education investment and human capital accumulation in migrant-sending countries in a negative-selection circumstance. Negative-selection migration has two conflicting effects: parents' migration brings remittances and...

Policy prescriptions for managing natural resource windfalls are based on the permanent income hypothesis: none of the windfall is invested at home and saving in an intergenerational SWF is dictated by smoothing consumption across different generations. Furthermore, with Dutch disease effects...

The global fall in interest rates in recent decades has raised the possibility of a negative natural rate of interest. The secular stagnation hypothesis argues that a negative natural rate of interest is the underlying cause of the Great Recession. In this paper I demonstrate the role of bubbles...

This paper studies how young adults make relocation decisions to take advantage of time transfers from parents as a form of insurance against adverse economic conditions. It first documents the fact that adult children who received negative income shocks during the Great Recession were more...