Most of the studies examining the implications of social security reforms in China use overlapping generations models and abstract from the role of family support. However, in China, family support plays a prominent role in the well-being of the elderly and often substitutes for the lack of...

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes....

This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the...

We find that the Friedman rule is not optimal with real government transfers and distortionary taxation. As transfers cannot be taxed, a positive nominal net interest rate is the indirect way to tax the additional income derived from transfers. This result holds for heterogeneous agents,...

We propose a dynamic stochastic model of the intergenerational transmission of capital that accounts for fertility differentials. The evolution of the distribution of capital depends on a parent-to-child capital transmission technology, which captures how capital is diluted across siblings, and...

The theoretical literature presumes generational risk is large enough to merit study and that such risk can be meaningfully shared via appropriate government policies. This paper assesses these propositions. It develops a computational technique to overcome the curse of dimensionality and...

This paper analyzes the impact of aging on capital accumulation and welfare in a country with a sizable unfunded social security system. Using a two-period overlapping generation model with endogenous retirement decisions, the paper shows that the type of aging and the type of unfunded social...

Expectation formation about future trade liberalization induces sectoral adjustment in advance and so the number of opposition decreases and trade liberalization can be self-fulfilling. We analyze this expectation formation mechanism in political process from two aspects: population aging and...