We propose a new rank-based test for the number of common primitive shocks, q, in large panel data. After estimating a VAR(1) model on r static factors extracted by principal component analysis, we estimate the number of common primitive shocks by testing the rank of the VAR residuals'...

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of changes in financial conditions on the economy of Türkiye, for which financial conditions indices were constructed. To examine possible changes in the relationship between financial conditions and the real economy due to the unique...

We consider the applicability of simple statistical models to Russia's short-term economic trends in a wartime context. We develop several composite indicators combining economic variables to predict Russian GDP trends both before and after the invasion if Ukraine in 2022. In addition, our SVAR...

For decades, there has been consensus that measures of well-being must move past readily available economic data, and newer measurements of well-being are often obtained through individual questions or questionnaires. Despite being more accessible to compare person to person, recent trends have...

This study develops a multi-dimensional composite index to measure financial inclusion in Ethiopia, using a two-stage Principal Component Analysis based on ten traditional and five digital indicators from 2015 to 2023. The results reveal a significant increase in Ethiopia's financial inclusion...