Lombardi, Marco J.; Maier, Philipp - European Central Bank - 2011
approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a … dynamic factor model tends to outperform the PMI model (at times by a wide margin). However, accuracy of the dynamic factor … model can be uneven (forecasts for some countries have large errors), with the PMI model dominating clearly for some …