We exploit the new historical national accounts data for Italy over the period 1861-2010, built by Banca d'Italia and Istat, with the collaboration of the University of Rome "Tor Vergata". In the first part of the paper, a thorough study of the new data's statistical properties is presented...

Estimating and assessing the risk of a large portfolio is an important topic in financial econometrics and risk management. The risk is often estimated by a substitution of a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator for large portfolios is largely...

Рассмотрен подход к совершенствованию управления региональным развитием, в основе которого определение характера и направленности влияния ряда факторов на...

This paper addresses the issue related to testing for non-linearity in economic models using new principal component based multivariate non-linearity tests. Monte Carlo results suggest that the new multivariate tests have good size and power properties even in small samples usually available in...

We show that incorporating the intra-day relationships of electricity prices improves the accuracy of forecasts of daily electricity spot prices. We use half-hourly data from the UK power market to model the spot prices directly (via ARX and Vector ARX models) and indirectly (via factor models)....

This paper tackles the prediction of the probability and severity of US recessions. We employ parsimonious Probit models to estimate the probability of a recession h periods ahead, for h varying between 1 and 8 quarters. A novel goodness-of-fit measure derived from the Kullback-Leibler...

Firm's financial performance is reflected by its profit and loss account. Still, all financial statements are needed in order to have a complete view on a firm's financial performance. As a general rule, several financial indicators are calculated in this sense. Hence, it would be of great...