predictions in his critique of policy predictions made with reduced-form equations. Sims (1980) called economic identifying …-estimated OVAR equations inadequate and out-of-sample policy predictions of forwardly-estimated RES equations inaccurate. Sims (1980 … using the directly-estimated OVAR equations to make policy predictions. However, if assumed or predicted out …

eqs. that Lucas (1976) advocated for making policy predictions. Sims (1980) called identifying restrictions on deep … out-of-sample policy predictions of forwardly-est. RES eqs. inaccurate. Sims (1980, 1986) instead advocated directly … estimating OVAR eqs. restricted by statistical restrictions and directly using directly-est. OVAR eqs. To make policy predictions …

predictions in his critique of policy predictions made with reduced-form equations. [...] …. Forwardly-estimated deep parameters determine forwardly-estimated RES equations that Lucas (1976) advocated for making policy …

eqs. that Lucas (1976) advocated for making policy predictions. Sims (1980) called identifying restrictions on deep … out-of-sample policy predictions of forwardly-est. RES eqs. inaccurate. Sims (1980, 1986) instead advocated directly … estimating OVAR eqs. restricted by statistical restrictions and directly using directly-est. OVAR eqs. To make policy predictions …

-agent model’s policy predictions is large compared to predictive intervals that reflect parameter uncertainty. Since it is not …