Existing empirical studies have focused on determinants of investment. We focus instead on episodes of accelerated capital stock growth that last eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low growth regions, but more so in middle income and Asian countries....

This paper shows that regional trade integration shifts the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. Thus, they bear the cost of trade balance expansion, while competitive exchange rate moves vis-a-vis RTA trading partners result in no expansion or...

We study the optimal foreign exchange (FX) intervention policy in response to a positive terms of trade shock and associated Dutch disease episode in a small open economy model. We find that during a Dutch disease episode tradable production drops below the socially optimal level, resulting in...

We examine the profitability of implementing a short term trading strategy based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings per share forecasts using publicly available information. Since large earnings surprises may lead to extreme values in the forecast error series that disrupt their...

This paper analyses the effect of stochastic terms of trade shocks on the current account of a small and open economy. Under uncertainty the distinctions between expected and unexpected, transitory and permanent shocks of the previous perfect foresight literature break down. It is shown that...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, we examine the impact of anticipated and unanticipated terms of trade (ToT) shocks on aggregate output, inflation and the trade balance (TB). This allows us to offer an alternative explanation of the J-curve phenomenon. We find that an...