Recent empirical work has challenged the hypothesis that terms-of-trade shocks are an important source of cyclical fluctuations in emerging economies. We show that ignoring the news component in the terms-of-trade movements results in misleading conclusions about their importance as a source of...

There is widespread concern about the effect of the Uruguay Round policy changes on world agricultural prices and consequently upon the welfare of developing countries. Assessing welfare changes with the standard terms of trade effect calculation can be misleading for distorted economies, since...

Russian manufacturing industrial development in late 2014 – early 2015 has been splitted: depending on the output dynamics industries may be divided into two groups. One group (the “losers”) shows a stagnating dynamics in spite of the substantial price growth caused by the exchange rate...

This paper provides new evidence relating to the debate of whether long-lived TOT shocks affect saving rates using a sample of 56 developing countries for the period 1980-2010. The core aspect of the empirical analysis is to utilize the terms-of-trade (TOT) shock-duration and trend-growth...

Product and financial market integration determine the global implications of China's recent growth surge and its on-going transition from export led growth. These alter China's structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), which in turn shifts the international terms of...

This paper examines the implications of the terms-of-trade theory for the determinants of outcomes arising under the enforcement provisions of international agreements. Like original trade agreement negotiations, the paper models formal trade dispute negotiations as potentially addressing the...

This paper studies the determinants of pricing-to-market at the firm-level, with a particular focus on the role of firm-specific and policy-induced market power. We use a large dataset containing export values and quantities by product and destination for all exporting firms in 12 developing and...