Search Results - subject:"Predictive Distribution"

A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Ensemble Weather Forecasting

Cocchi, Daniela; Narzo, Antonio Fabio Di - Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "Paolo Fortunati", … - 2008

In meteorology, the traditional approach to forecasting employs deterministic models mimicking atmospheric dynamics. Forecast uncertainty due to the partial knowledge of initial conditions is tackled by Ensemble Predictions Systems (EPS). Probabilistic forecasting is a relatively new approach...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008556799

Bayesian Reliability Sampling Plans under the Conditions of Rayleigh-Inverse-Rayleigh Distribution

Kalaiselvi S.; Loganathan A.; Vijayaraghavan R. - In: Economic Quality Control 29 (2014) 1, pp. 10-10

products under testing. When the quality of products varies over lots, then a predictive distribution of the lifetime should be … with hybrid censoring. The predictive distribution is obtained assuming that the probability distribution of the lifetime … used to design sampling plans. In this paper, designing of reliability single sampling plan based on the predictive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010891917

The one-sided posterior predictive p-value for Fieller’s problem

Zhao, Guimei; Xu, Xingzhong - In: Statistics & Probability Letters 95 (2014) C, pp. 57-62

We consider one-sided hypothesis testing for Fieller’s problem. The one-sided posterior predictive p-value is proposed by taking the generalized p-value as the test statistic. Simulations show that the proposed p-value performs better than the generalized p-value in the frequentist performance.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939473

Calibration tests for count data

Wei, Wei; Held, Leonhard - In: TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of … 23 (2014) 4, pp. 787-805

Calibration, the statistical consistency of forecast distributions and observations, is a central requirement for probabilistic predictions. Calibration of continuous forecasts has been widely discussed, and significance tests are commonly used to detect whether a prediction model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011151304

Determination of Bayesian reliability sampling plans based on exponential-inverted gamma distribution

Appaia, Loganathan; Muthu Krishnan, Padmanaban; … - In: International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management 31 (2014) 8, pp. 950-962

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is the determination of reliability sampling plans in the Bayesian approach assuming that the lifetime distribution is exponential. Design/methodology/approach – Sampling plans are used in manufacturing companies as a tool for carrying out sampling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014802016

Determination of Bayesian reliability sampling plans based on exponential-inverted gamma distribution

Appaia, Loganathan; Krishnan, Padmanaban Muthu; … - In: International journal of quality & reliability management 31 (2014) 8, pp. 950-962

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010413629

Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition

Anatolyev, Stanislav; Gospodinov, Nikolay - Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), New … - 2007

While the predictability of excess stock returns is statistically small, their sign and volatility exhibit a substantially larger degree of dependence over time. We capitalize on this observation and consider prediction of excess stock returns by decomposing the equity premium into a product of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005146504

Portfolio Selection under Parameter Uncertainty using a Predictive Distribution

Im, Ji Jung; Lim, Hyun Soo; Choi, Sung sub; Nikitin, Denis - In: Annals of Economics and Finance 8 (2007) 2, pp. 305-312

We propose a portfolio selection model based on a generalized hyperbolic predictive distribution. This distribution … calculated under the predictive distribution. We demonstrate the performance of the new approach by applying it to simulated and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009228656

Fuzzy Bayesian inference

Viertl, Reinhard; Sunanta, Owat - In: METRON 71 (2013) 3, pp. 207-216

In standard Bayesian inference, a-priori distributions are assumed to be classical probability distributions. This is a topic of critical discussions because, in reality, a-priori information is usually more or less non-precise, i.e. fuzzy. Hence, a more general form of a-priori distributions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011000675

A goodness-of-fit testing approach for normality based on the posterior predictive distribution

He, Daojiang; Xu, Xingzhong - In: TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of … 22 (2013) 1, pp. 1-18

sample and the predictive sample drawn from the posterior predictive distribution. Note that the predictive sample is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010994285