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  • Search: subject:"Predictive densities"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Forecasting model 14 Prognoseverfahren 14 Statistical distribution 11 Statistische Verteilung 11 Theorie 10 Theory 10 Bayesian Inference 8 Density Combination 8 Large Set of Predictive Densities 8 Predictive densities 8 Bayesian inference 7 Bayes-Statistik 6 Great Recession 6 State space model 6 Threshold VAR 6 Zustandsraummodell 6 Monte Carlo simulation 5 Monte-Carlo-Simulation 5 Nonlinear state-space 5 Time series analysis 5 Zeitreihenanalyse 5 Compositional Factor Models 4 Dynamic Factor Models 4 Nonlinear State Space 4 Bruttoinlandsprodukt 3 Financial frictions 3 Gross domestic product 3 Inflation 3 Inflation rate 3 Inflationsrate 3 Predictive Densities 3 VAR model 3 VAR-Modell 3 ARCH model 2 ARCH-Modell 2 Economic forecast 2 Ensemble forecasting 2 Financial Frictions 2 Financial crisis 2 Finanzkrise 2
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Online availability
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Free 21 Undetermined 4
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 20 Article 6
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Working Paper 14 Graue Literatur 9 Non-commercial literature 9 Arbeitspapier 8 Article in journal 4 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 4 Aufsatz im Buch 1 Book section 1
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Language
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English 21 Undetermined 5
Author
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Casarin, Roberto 11 Grassi, Stefano 11 Ravazzolo, Francesco 10 Dijk, Herman K. van 6 Mumtaz, Haroon 6 Alessandri, Piergiorgio 5 van Dijk, Herman K. 4 Garratt, Anthony 3 Vahey, Shaun P. 3 Hecq, Alain W. J. 2 Mitchell, James 2 Voisin, Elisa 2 Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu 1 Clements, Michael P. 1 Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. 1 Issler, João Victor 1 Koop, Gary 1 Opschoor, Anne 1 Pauwels, Laurent 1 Pinter, Gabor 1 Radchenko, Peter 1 Ravazollo, Francesco 1 Schick, Manuel 1 Vasnev, Andrey L. 1 Yapi, Niango Ange Joseph 1 van Dijk, Herman 1
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Institution
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Banca d'Italia 1 Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics 1 School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary 1
Published in...
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Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 4 Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 4 CReMFi Discussion Papers 2 Working Paper 2 AWI discussion paper series 1 Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1 CAMA working paper series 1 Document de travail 1 Essays in honor of Joon Y. Park : econometric methodology in empirical applications 1 International Journal of Forecasting 1 International journal of forecasting 1 Journal of applied econometrics 1 Journal of econometrics 1 Journal of international money and finance 1 Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1 This paper proposes forecasting joint tail risks for key macroeconomic indicators, GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, using the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By incorporating SPF consensus forecasts into the conditional mean of AR-GARCH-type models, the accuracy of univariate and multivariate predictive densities is significantly improved. Modeling a constant correlation matrix captures strong dependencies, particularly between GDP growth and unemployment. Using US data from 1990 to 2024, we show that the joint modeling framework enables scenario-based analysis in which predictive densities, conditioned on adverse developments in other variables, differ substantially from the baseline marginal distributions. The framework allows for a formal out-of-sample evaluation of joint predictive densities and a transparent assessment of conditional tail risks. 1 Working Papers / School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary 1 Working paper 1 Working papers 1
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 14 EconStor 6 RePEc 6
Showing 1 - 10 of 26
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Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters
Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015638609
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Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty
Clements, Michael P.; Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 38 (2023) 2, pp. 164-185
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287961
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A Flexible Predictive Density Combination Model for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods
Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2022
weight learning and model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures allocate the large sets of predictive densities … nonlinear filtering, implemented on graphics processing units. The approach is applied to combine predictive densities based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013356469
Saved in:
Cover Image
A Flexible Predictive Density Combination for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods
Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2022
incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures that include learning allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination …, implemented on graphics processing units. The approach is applied to combine predictive densities based on a large number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013356509
Saved in:
Cover Image
A flexible predictive density combination model for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods
Casarin, Roberto; Ravazollo, Francesco; Grassi, Stefano; … - 2022
weight learning and model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures allocate the large sets of predictive densities … nonlinear filtering, implemented on graphics processing units. The approach is applied to combine predictive densities based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816959
Saved in:
Cover Image
A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods
Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2022
incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures that include learning allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination …, implemented on graphics processing units. The approach is applied to combine predictive densities based on a large number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332662
Saved in:
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A short term credibility index for central banks under inflation targeting : an application to Brazil
Hecq, Alain W. J.; Issler, João Victor; Voisin, Elisa - In: Journal of international money and finance 143 (2024), pp. 1-17
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551348
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A Bayesian dynamic compositional model for large density combinations in finance
Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2021
A Bayesian dynamic compositional model is introduced that can deal with combining a large set of predictive densities … partitions the large set of predictive densities into a smaller number of subsets. We exploit the state space form of the model … 500 index combining 3712 predictive densities, based on 1856 US individual stocks, clustered in relatively small number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431874
Saved in:
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A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance
Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2021
A Bayesian dynamic compositional model is introduced that can deal with combining a large set of predictive densities … partitions the large set of predictive densities into a smaller number of subsets. We exploit the state space form of the model … 500 index combining 3712 predictive densities, based on 1856 US individual stocks, clustered in relatively small number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605982
Saved in:
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Exchange rate predictive densities and currency risks : a quantile regression approach
Yapi, Niango Ange Joseph - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012242256
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