Outlines previous research on business failure prediction models and investigates the impact of serial correlation and non‐stationarity in financial variables on models based on linear discriminant analysis, logit and cumulative sums using 1974‐1991 data from a sample of failed and...

Refers to previous research on the empirical testing of continuous time, two factor short rate interest models by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992), Vasicek (1997) and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985); and the Nowman (1997, 2000) Gaussian estimation approach. Applies these ideas to...

Popular fearmongers never let the facts ruin a good story, even though, this article reflects, history has proven the pessimists wrong. Pessimistic predictions in a range of areas including land, population, energy, economy and technology are deflated and a lively selection of “futurist...

Outlines Warren and Shelton’s system for modelling a firm’s operations as a set of simultaneous equations, its limitations and the addition of Monte Carlo simulation into it by Coats and Chesser. Develops these ideas further and applies the new simulation model to a Greek clothing firm to...

Summarizes previous research on the links between share prices, accounting earnings and fundamentals (i.e. financial variables); identifies value‐relevant fundamentals used by analysts and assesses their usefulness by using principal components analysis on 1992‐1996 data for 50 French...

Presents a study of the importance of multinationality in predicting firm valuation and profitability using Ohlson’s (1988, 1991) valuation model as a basis for model development. Tests these models on 1987‐1992 US data and compares them with predictions based on current return on equity....

Outlines the role of the conservatism inherent in generally accepted accounting principles in Ohlson’s (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson’s (1995) valuation models and compares it with other research findings. Identifies potential sources of conservatism (e.g. expensing advertising costs,...

Discusses the increasing use of valuation models in accounting and finance research, identifies potential difficulties in the conventional model and develops a simple version (which can deal with negative earnings) of the Edwards, Bell and Ohlson model, estimated from 1987‐1997 UK data. Finds...

Outlines the valuation models of Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995), which relate share prices to accounting data, and develops a version which substitutes net value added for earnings. Tests it on 1978‐1995 US data and shows that it is better than the conventional model at explaining...