Sticky-price firms do not merely underreact to ambiguous competitor prices - they actively lean against them. Above an inflation threshold, signals clear and firms reverse to follow. Existing information-friction models restrict weights between zero and one, ruling out this negative...

This paper provides empirical evidence on a statistically significant pass-through from global energy price shocks to firms' inflation expectations in an oil-importing country. The results show that the size and duration of the pass-through depend crucially on the current local energy pricing...

Using a large German firm survey, I randomize information on documented AI productivity gains and industry adoption rates and track firms over time. Beliefs about AI's productivity potential rise significantly after the treatments across the prior distribution without reducing uncertainty. These...

This paper uses barcode-level price data for 16 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 2005–2022 to investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular...