Two indicators are proposed: the fi rst is the probabilistic indicator of the acceleration cycle (IPCA – indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération), which aims to detect economic acceleration and deceleration phases. The second is the probabilistic industrial recession indicator...

The intricate issue of detecting and forecasting macroeconomic cycles turning points has been once more perfectly illustrated with the global downturn experienced by most countries around the world in 2000-2001. Governments and Central Banks are very sensitive to economic indicators showing...