for 41 UK ITL2 regions between 2005 and 2020, and then assess their "unconditional" and "spatial" transition probabilities …

the Hamilton filter as views and test the predicted regime classification, the predicted regime probabilities, and the … posterior probabilities. Finally, we link these probabilities to the realized outcomes of earnings growth and changes in the …

many practical situations, the exact values of these probabilities are not known; only the intervals that contain these … values are known. In such situations, a natural idea is to select some probabilities from these intervals and to select a … model with the largest selected probabilities. The purpose of this study is to decide how to most adequately select these …

Probabilities of default (PDs) of loans are of central importance for financial stability. We analyze the PDs, reported …

' probabilities of default (PDs) for the four largest euro area countries. We estimate the impact of shocks on one-year PDs using …