may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models. We …

We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event … probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specifically, we collect information on subjective expectations in … different points in each of 6 races. We find that the S-shaped curve relating subjective to actual probabilities found in prior …

bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probabilities, the quantile bounds Q_a(X;p) are the optimal values in certain minimization …

models of continuous choice where the decision variable is a vector of choice probabilities. We then prove that the marginal …

asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities. Capital transfers between lines are partially allowed. When claim amounts are …

may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models. We …