This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical loan loss provisioning in Uruguay. Using a stress test methodology, it quantifies the protection against macroeconomic shocks provided by the stock of dynamic provisions accumulated since 2001 and finds that medium-sized shocks would be fully...

The existence of a purely finitely additive measure cannot be proved in Zermelo-Frankel set theory if the use of the Axiom of Choice is disallowed.

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that...

Financial frictions have been documented as an important determinant of firm dynamics. In this paper I model bankruptcy procedures, liquidation in particular, as an institutional feature that affects both sides of financial transactions. I construct a model of firm dynamics that generate...

Over the past year, euro area sovereign spreads have exhibited an unprecedented degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from...

We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of...

With cotton output declining by 46 percent from 2005-2008 (from 23.89 M bales in 2005 to 12.8 M bales in 2008), gins are processing less cotton. This paper examines how output size distribution of cotton gins in the U.S. has evolved and the extent to which the developments in the U.S. ethanol...

Measurable aspects of the economic convergence of EU countries form the main topic of this paper. For this purpose, statistical and econometric methods are presented and applied for revealing characteristic elements of such a process. A first group of methods refers mainly to aspects such as:...

Bayesian rational prior equilibrium requires agent to make rational statistical predictions and decisions, starting with first order non informative prior and keeps updating with statistical decision theoretic and game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. The main...

Uncertainty about the riskiness of new financial products was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by...