Search Results - subject:"Probabilities"

Kim, Jun Il - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790274

Post Merger Innovative Patterns in Small and Medium Firms

Cefis, E.; Ghita, M.L. - School of Economics, Universiteit Utrecht - 2008

highest probabilities of entering /persisting in innovative activities after M&As. For small firms, M&As do not ease the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040865

The dynamics of household income and wealth: results from the panel of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF) 2002-2005

Bover, Olympia - Banco de España - 2008

The EFF collects detailed information on household assets, debts, income, consumption, and demographic variables. One important characteristic of this survey is that it oversamples high-wealth households. Another important characteristic of the EFF is that the second wave has a full panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022300

Learning to communicate risk information in groups

Ting, Hsuchi; Wallsten, Thomas S. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 3 (2008) 8, pp. 659-666

Despite vigorous research on risk communication, little is known about the social forces that drive these choices. Erev, Wallsten, \& Neal (1991) showed that forecasters learn to select verbal or numerical probability estimates as a function of which mode yields on average the larger group...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773064

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence From Emerging Europe

Igan, Deniz; Tamirisa, Natalia T. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper examines the behavior of bank soundness indicators during episodes of brisk loan growth, using bank-level data for central and eastern Europe and controlling for the feedback effect of credit growth on bank soundness. No evidence is found that rapid loan expansion has weakened banks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599420

The Option-Ipod. the Probability of Default Implied by Option Prices Basedon Entropy

Capuano, Christian - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599478

From Crisis to IMF-Supported Program; Does democracy impede the speed required by financial markets?

Mody, Ashoka; Saravia, Diego - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Has the spread of democracy and political participation impeded the need for speed required by financial markets and the elevated threat of contagion across borders? We examine the time span between the onset of a financial crisis and the agreement on an IMF-supported adjustment program. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605163

Informality and Bank Credit; Evidence From Firm-Level Data

Koeda, Junko; Dabla-Norris, Era - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

The paper relies on a firm-level data on transition economies to examine the relationship between informality and bank credit. We find evidence that informality is robustly and significantly associated with lower access to and use of bank credit. We also find that higher tax compliance costs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605232

Preparing for Policy Changes: Social Security Expectations and Pension Scheme Participation

Wiel, Karen M. van der - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

, H55 Keywords: ageing, savings behavior, social security, subjective probabilities, uncertainty Corresponding … accumulation has not been assessed so far. 1.2 Expectations measured in subjective probabilities In the empirical analysis in this … paper I analyze the response to expectations by exploiting variation in the subjective probabilities individuals assign to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763471

Assessing Credit Risk of Companies with Mean-Reverting Leverage Ratios

Lo, C. F.; Wong, T. C.; Hui, C. H.; Huang, M. X. - Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR), … - 2008

paper studies the performances of the default probabilities generated from two stationaryleverage models with time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005558139