The recent spate of banking and currency crises has underscored the need to develop early warning systems. These are based on economic indicators of vulnerability, which can be identified from models and theories of crises. First generation models focus on the inconsistency of macroeconomic...

The recent spate of banking and currency crises has underscored the need to develop early warning systems. These are based on economic indicators of vulnerability, which can be identified from models and theories of crises. First generation models focus on the inconsistency of macroeconomic...

Coming after recent contributions on the history of econometric ideas, my testimony as an old econometrician first touches on the early relations between quantitative economics and economic theory, both in France during the thirties and around the Cowles Commission in Chicago during the late...