Search Results - subject:"Probability Judgment"

Passerini, Gabriella; Macchi, Laura; Bagassi, Maria - In: Judgment and Decision Making 7 (2012) 5, pp. 602-617

The ratio-bias (RB) phenomenon is considered to provide systematic evidence of irrationality. When judging the probability of a low-probability event, many people judge it as less likely when it is expressed as a ratio of small numbers (e.g., 1-in-10) than when it is expressed as a ratio of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575511

Towards a New Model for Causal Reasoning in Expert Systems

Wright, M. Keith - In: International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations … 7 (2017) 1, pp. 32-63

probabilities. This paper reviews the literature on causal and probability judgment, and then presents a probabilistic inferencing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012046156

Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample

Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative … Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample IZA DP No. 4170 … May 2009 Thomas Dohmen Armin Falk David Huffman Felix Marklein Uwe Sunde Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999933

From group diffusion to ratio bias: Effects of denominator and numerator salience on intuitive risk and likelihood judgments

Price, Paul C.; Matthews, Teri V. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009) 6, pp. 436-446

The group-diffusion effect is the tendency for people to judge themselves to be less likely to experience a negative outcome as the total number of people exposed to the threat increases --- even when the probability of the outcome is explicitly presented (Yamaguchi, 1998). In Experiment 1 we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008578208

Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample

Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix - 2009

process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269033

Frequency formats, probability formats, or problem structure? A test of the nested-sets hypothesis in an extensional reasoning task

Neace, William P.; Michaud, Steven; Bolling, Lauren; … - In: Judgment and Decision Making 3 (2008) February, pp. 140-152

Five experiments addressed a controversy in the probability judgment literature that centers on the efficacy of framing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000610

Learning to communicate risk information in groups

Ting, Hsuchi; Wallsten, Thomas S. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 3 (2008) 8, pp. 659-666

Despite vigorous research on risk communication, little is known about the social forces that drive these choices. Erev, Wallsten, \& Neal (1991) showed that forecasters learn to select verbal or numerical probability estimates as a function of which mode yields on average the larger group...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773064

Innumeracy and incentives: A ratio bias experiment

Dale, Donald; Rudski, Jeffrey; Schwartz, Adam; Smith, Eric - In: Judgment and Decision Making 2 (2007) August, pp. 243-250

The Ratio-Bias phenomenon, observed by psychologist Seymour Epstein and colleagues, is a systematic manifestation of irrationality. When offered a choice between two lotteries, individuals consistently choose the lottery with the greater number of potential successes, even when it offers a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773122

Are people naïve probability theorists? : a further examination of the probability theory + variation model

Fisher, Christopher R.; Wolfe, Christopher R. - In: Journal of behavioral decision making 27 (2014) 5, pp. 433-443

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010469778

Statistical formats to optimize evidence-based decision making: A behavioral approach

Arribas, Iván; Comeig, Irene; Urbano, Amparo; Vila, José - In: Journal of Business Research 67 (2014) 5, pp. 790-794

Statistical information is crucial for managerial decision making. The decision-making literature in psychology and mathematical cognition documents how different statistical formats can facilitate certain types of decisions. The present analysis is the first of its kind to assess the impact of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011050025