Search Results - subject:"Probability assessment"

Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

Fox, Craig R.; Clemen, Robert T. - In: Management Science 51 (2005) 9, pp. 1417-1432

Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009198240

GIS Modelling of Sea-Level Rise Induced Shoreline Changes Inside Coastal Re-Rntrants – Two Examples from Southeastern Australia

Hennecke, Werner - In: Natural Hazards 31 (2004) 1, pp. 253-276

Shoreline recession as a result of rising sea level has been recognised as a potential near-future hazard by a number of countries. However, the collection of high spatial resolution data, in particular elevation data, is often too costly and time consuming to be applied routinely for a detailed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010846416

Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

Smith, James E.; Winterfeldt, Detlof von - In: Management Science 50 (2004) 5, pp. 561-574

As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204418

Evoking Information in Probability Assessment: Knowledge Maps and Reasoning-Based Directed Questions

Browne, Glenn J.; Curley, Shawn P.; Benson, P. George - In: Management Science 43 (1997) 1, pp. 1-14

methodology. Second, a theoretical analysis of probability assessment was used to develop a new prescriptive elicitation technique … probability assessment. Experimental results showed that both the knowledge map and the new directed questions methodology … elicited a higher quantity and quality of information from decision makers engaged in probability assessment tasks than did a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204432

Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

Winkler, R.; Muñoz, Javier; Cervera, José; Bernardo, José - In: TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of … 5 (1996) 1, pp. 1-60

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005613308

Belief Assessment: An Underdeveloped Phase of Probability Elicitation

Benson, P. George; Curley, Shawn P.; Smith, Gerald F. - In: Management Science 41 (1995) 10, pp. 1639-1653

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214011

Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit

Winkler, Robert L.; Poses, Roy M. - In: Management Science 39 (1993) 12, pp. 1526-1543

best individually. Some comparisons are made with previous work, and implications for probability assessment and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009198158

Knowledge Maps

Howard, Ronald A. - In: Management Science 35 (1989) 8, pp. 903-922

To get fragmented information out of people's heads, onto paper, and ultimately into a computer is a continually challenging problem. We show how to use the concepts of influence diagrams to construct knowledge maps that capture the diverse information possessed by an individual or a group. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197985

The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition

Ravinder, H. V.; Kleinmuntz, Don N.; Dyer, James S. - In: Management Science 34 (1988) 2, pp. 186-199

The use of decomposition as a procedure for improving the consistency of subjective probability encoding is discussed. Using a psychometric measurement model, an expression is developed that describes the random error associated with decomposition estimates as a function of characteristics of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009218407

Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

Kluyver, Cornelis A. De; Moskowitz, Herbert - In: Management Science 30 (1984) 3, pp. 273-278

An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208754