The goal of this document is to present a methodology for estimating probabilities for ordered sets. This may have several practical applications such as calibration of Rating Models, estimation of Mortality Tables or measurement of side effects related to different doze sizes. In order to do...

The goal of this document is to present a methodology for estimating probabilities for ordered sets. This may have several practical applications such as calibration of Rating Models, estimation of Mortality Tables or measurement of side effects related to different doze sizes. In order to do...

Declining internal migration in the United States is driven by increasing home attachment in locations with initially high rates of population turnover. These 'fast' locations were the population growth destinations of the 20th century, where home attachments were low, but have increased as...

Weather data bases are important in optimizing a range of economic activities, such as maritime traffic. In this paper, a statistical analysis of data has been carried out, which includes the interpretation of the results with an emphasis on the analysis of consequences for local population. The...

We demonstrate the usefulness of cognitive models for combining human estimates of probabilities in two experiments. The first experiment involves people's estimates of probabilities for general knowledge questions such as ``What percentage of the world's population speaks English as a first...

Проблема формирования оптимальной структуры долгового портфеля нефтяной компании стала актуальной в связи с введением во II квартале 2014 г. секторальных санкций,...

Expert opinions are often biased. To test how such bias affects the propensity to use opinions, we set up an experiment where subjects estimate the probability of an event that depends on (i) the subject's type, which is observable, and (ii) the unobserved state of the world. Before making their...

Stochastically ordered random variables with given marginal distributions are combined into a joint distribution preserving the ordering and the marginals using a maximum entropy formulation. A closed-form expression is obtained. An application is in default estimation for different portfolio...