Search Results - subject:"Probability forecasts"

Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output

Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin C.; Shields, Kalvinder K. - In: International journal of forecasting 32 (2016) 2, pp. 374-390

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597120

Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation

Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - In: Economics letters 141 (2016), pp. 125-129

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011616210

Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry for different sets of obligors

Krämer, Walter; Neumärker, Simon - In: Economics letters 145 (2016), pp. 48-51

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618170

Nonmanipulable Bayesian Testing

Stewart, Colin - University of Toronto, Department of Economics - 2009

This paper considers the problem of testing an expert who makes probabilistic forecasts about the outcomes of a stochastic process. I show that, under general conditions on the tester's prior, a likelihood test can distinguish informed from uninformed experts with high prior probability. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036780

Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?

Lee, Kevin; Garratt, Anthony; Shields, Kalvinder - Department of Economics, Leicester University - 2009

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458592

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, Paul - In: Journal of business research : JBR 68 (2015) 8, pp. 1753-1754

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011317068

On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry

Kraemer, Walter; Güttler, André - 2008

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P at the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we consider partial orderings among competing probability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264293

Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth

Clements, Michael P. - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2008

the impact of rounding on assessments of the internal consistency of the probability forecasts of a decline in real output … and the histograms for annual real output growth, and on the relationship between the probability forecasts and the point …We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005747048

On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry

Güttler, André; Kraemer, Walter - CESifo - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181478

Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy

Kaya, Huseyin; Yazgan, M. Ege - In: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 50 (2014) 2, pp. 214-229

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The … probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010812086