Search Results - subject:"Probability forecasts"

Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd's calibration problem

Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 60 (2014) 2, pp. 463-475

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010258783

Probability forecasts of macroaggregates in the Turkish economy

Kaya, Hüseyin; Yazgan, Mustafa Ege - In: Emerging markets finance & trade : a journal of the … 50 (2014) 2, pp. 214-229

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403062

Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty

Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2006

’ procedures. Probability forecasts provide a comprehensive representation of the output gap and the associated uncertainties in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005509615

Real Time Representations of the Output Gap

Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2006

-Prescott filter in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162713

Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Clements, Michael P - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2006

We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368758

The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Monokroussos, George; Zhao, Yongchen - In: Economics Letters 118 (2013) 1, pp. 219-221

While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603115

Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?

Lichtendahl, Kenneth C.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 59 (2013) 7, pp. 1594-1611

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784145

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

Garratt, A; Lee, K; Pesaran, M H; Shin, Yongcheol - School of Economics, University of Edinburgh - 2004

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco … intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro-econometric model, are … recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005147087

Evaluating probability forecasts in terms of refinement and strictly proper scoring rules

Krämer, Walter - 2003

This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster to empirically outperform another one in terms of all strictly proper scoring rules.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306244

Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P

Krämer, Walter; Güttler, André - 2003

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P as of the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we show that it is unlikely that both agencies are well...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306287