Search Results - subject:"Probability forecasts"

On the ordering of probability forecasts

Krämer, Walter - Institut für Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistik, … - 2002

The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010982354

On the ordering of probability forecasts

Krämer, Walter - 2002 - Version September 2002

The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770515

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic … intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314918

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Models: An Application to the UK Economy

Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Peseran, M Hashem; Shin, … - Department of Economics, Leicester University - 2000

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro … intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro- econometric model … that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005385012

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - CESifo - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766298

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

Garrat, A.; Lee, K.; Pesaran, M.H.; Shin, Y. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2000

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic … intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113851

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626

A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling

Garratt, A; Lee, K; Pesaran, M H; Shin, Yongcheol - School of Economics, University of Edinburgh - 1999

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086759

On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry

Krämer, Walter; Güttler, André - In: Empirical Economics 34 (2008) 2, pp. 343-356

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005382343

Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters

Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr.; Winkler, Robert L. - In: Management Science 53 (2007) 11, pp. 1745-1755

Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only about the score, but also about their performance relative to other forecasters. We model this type of preference and show that a competitive forecaster who wants to do better than another forecaster typically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197710