This paper discusses the ?structural cointegrating VAR? approach to macroeconometric modelling and compares it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely, the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general...

The growth of unsecured household credit relative to income has been marked in recent years and many observers have questioned whether it is sustainable. This paper develops a theory-based empirical model of equilibrium household consumption and credit. The equilibrium relationships are embedded...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P at the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we consider partial orderings among competing probability...