Search Results - subject:"Probability model"

What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?

Mourmouras, Alex; Ivanova, Anna; Anayotos, George C.; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper assesses the implementation of IMF-supported programs using measures of program interruptions, compliance with conditionality, and the share of committed funds disbursed. The econometric model allows an evaluation of the importance for program implementation of political conditions in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605139

Probabilistic choice in games: properties of Rosenthal's t-solutions

Voorneveld, Mark - Economics Institute for Research (SIR), … - 2003

In t-solutions, quantal response equilibria based on the linear probability model as introduced in R.W. Rosenthal (1989 … the linear probability model. Choice probabilities in t-solutions are related to the determination of leveling taxes in … Nash equilibrium. JEL classi�cation: C72 Keywords: quantal response equilibrium, t-solutions, linear probability model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190866

New wine in old bottles: a sequential estimation technique for the LPM

Horrace, William C. (contributor); … - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001745318

Strength in numbers? Not always!

Schinazi, Rinaldo B. - In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 390 (2011) 10, pp. 1737-1740

We propose a simple model to compute the probability of success under a particular quorum sensing strategy. We show that this quorum sensing strategy has a higher probability of success than an individualistic strategy when, for instance, the probability of success for a single individual is low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010591184

Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction

Leite, Carlos; Tsangarides, Charalambos G.; Ghura, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

The paper investigates the existence of "super pro-poor" policies-that is, policies that directly influence the income of the poor after accounting for the effect of growth. It uses a dynamic panel estimator to capture both across- and within-country effects, and a Bayesian-type robustness check...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599509

Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence

Simone, Francisco Nadal-De - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263734

Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging - A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

Feldkircher, Martin - Fachbereich Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, … - 2010

square error (rmse) is maximized for the median probability model put forward by Barbieri and Berger (2003). On the other …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642303

Government Spending, Legislature Size, and the Executive Veto

Baqir, Reza - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001

Recent work on the political economy of fiscal policy has asked how budgetary institutions affect fiscal outcomes. But what determines the budgetary institutions? In this paper I consider one such institution: the executive veto. A simple theoretical framework predicts that jurisdictions with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768732

On the Nature and Role of Hypothesis Tests.

McLean, A. - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2001

Hypothesis testing is widely regarded as an essential part of statistics, but it s use in research has led to considerable controversy in a number of disciplines, especially psychology, with a number of commentators suggesting it should not be used at all. A root cause of this controversy was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149047

Annual risk assessment on high-frequency debris-flow fans

Hu, Kaiheng; Li, Yong; Wei, Fangqiang - In: Natural Hazards 49 (2009) 3, pp. 469-477

An empirical model of debris-flow risk assessment is developed to estimate annual loss ratio on high-frequency debris-flow fans where more than one hazard events occur every year. Based on observations of debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine, Yunnan Province, China, it is found that Gamma...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010758945