We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...

The paper evaluates the German health care reform of 1997, using the individual number of doctor visits as outcome measure. A new econometric model, the Probit-Poisson-log-normal model with correlated errors, describes the data better than existing count data models. Moreover, it has an...

The multinomial probit (MP) and ordered probit (OP) models have been widely used in empirical econometric analyses in which a dependent variable falls into several categories. In this paper, we consider another class of probit models, called the correlated sequential probit(CSP) model, and show...