In this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one...

This note makes the point that, if a Bivariate Probit (BP) model is estimated on data arising from a Recursive Bivariate Probit (RBP) process, the resulting BP correlation parameter is a weighted average of the RBP correlation parameter and the parameter associated to the endogenous binary...

This paper proposes a parametric approach to estimating a dynamic binary response panel data model that allows for endogenous contemporaneous regressors. This approach is of particular value for settings in which one wants to estimate the effects of an endogenous treatment on a binary outcome....

Random effects probit and logit specifications are common when analyzing economic experiments. Stata's fitted values from these estimations, however, appear to fit data poorly compared to their pooled counterparts. This is entirely due to Stata reporting the median predictive value, when...