The European project WASSERMed addresses issues of water availability and climate change in the Mediterranean. This paper illustrates the findings obtained in WASSERMed about impacts on tourism. The methodology is based on a bottom-up strategy. A micro-model has been developed, forecasting...

Ageing societies influence the development of industrialised countries. A changing age composition of the population not only affects pension and social security systems but also infrastructure, housing market, available workforce and consumption pattern. Though the process proceeds only slowly,...

The fact that the literature tends to find biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing claim in the academic and policy arenas for the need to introduce independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, like the European Commission (EC) in the case...

The main objective of our study is to model and forecast volatility as measured by the VIX index, with the aim of producing information to banks and also to macroeconomists. We begin with Arma/Arima models, augmented with Garch errors and exogenous regressors : some macroeconomic leading...

This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information...

The connectedness of international equity markets can be measured building on the well-established forecast error variance decomposition framework. This approach permits the assessment of the propagation of shocks (spillovers) across equity markets on a day-to-day basis. The focus of our...

The distorting effects of oil price shocks on oil rich economies are also significant depending on the level of their vulnerability to external shocks. The paper assesses the impact of these shocks on macroeconomic variablesStructural VAR AnalysisThe results show that oil prices have...

The market sistem is recognized as the most efficient way to organize a modern and dynamic economy. European Single Market and the Internal Market is today the largest market in the world. The European Union produces over 30% of global GDP, thus becoming a leading player globally. Single Market...

This paper develops a new data set using a new accounting methodology called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). NTA permit to build an accounting system that takes consideration the factor age into national accounts. NTA are consistent with national accounts and allows the estimation of lifecycle...

The distribution of persons in each economy on their income is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’...