We use a range of methods and remittance data from 1990 to 2007 to assess the strength and significance of linkages between remittance flows to Latin America and the U.S. business cycle. All of the evidence suggests that remittance flows are relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the U.S....

In this paper, we introduce a unified skew Gaussian-log Gaussian model and propose a general class of spatial sampling models that can account for both heavy tails and skewness. This class includes some models proposed previously in the literature. The likelihood function involves analytically...

Institutional transparency makes future contingencies more easily predictable for investors. Greater transparency can be achieved through vertical and horizontal integration of policy rules, which may result in lower Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity). In a model based on cumulative prospect...

We consider a class of linear regression model with extreme distribution noise. We show by a mean of point process technique that the asymptotic distribution of the maximum is the same as the one of the max of the noise process, under specific conditions.

Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of...

In this paper we consider the Monte Carlo solution of the Cauchy problem for a nonlinear parabolic equation. Using the fundamental solution of the heat equation, we obtain a nonlinear integral equation with solution the same as the original partial differential equation. On the basis of this...

A noisy damping parameter in the equation of motion of a nonlinear oscillator renders the fixed point of the system unstable when the amplitude of the noise is sufficiently large. However, the stability diagram of the system can not be predicted from the analysis of the moments of the linearized...