This paper describes the initial development of a national integrated assessment model, based on the MMRF model used to analyse the CPRS. The initial development was geared towards delivering a proof of concept simulation to demonstrate the feasibility of the development of such a model. In...

The development of employment and unemployment in regional labour markets is known to spatially interdependent. Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) models generate a link between the local and the surrounding labour markets and thus might be useful when analysing and forecasting employment and...

Population changes are decisive for growth performances. This has been shown in a number of country studies, using time series data. The analysis is here extended in two dimensions: 1) the importance of demographics for growth is taking in to account a regional dimension allowing for spatial...

Die Arbeitslosigkeit für die 176 deutschen administrativen Arbeitsmarktregionen (im Allgemeinen Arbeitsagenturbezirke) wird auf einer monatlichen Basis prognostiziert. Wegen ihrer geringen Größe existieren zwischen diesen regionalen Einheiten starke räumliche Interdependenzen. Um diese und...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

This paper presents an overview of existing research on wind speed and power forecasting. It first discusses state-of-the-art wind speed and power forecasting approaches. Then, forecasting accuracy is presented based on variable factors. Finally, potential techniques to improve the accuracy of...

The recently advanced space–time autoregressive (ST-AR) model is used to forecast US, regional and state rates of violent and property crime. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault, while the property crime model includes burglary,...

We forecast US state-level employment growth using several distinct econometric approaches: combinations of individual autoregressive distributed lag models, general-to-specific modeling with bootstrap aggregation (GETS-bagging), and approximate factor (or “beta”) models. Our results show...