Inference of predictive regression over multiple horizons is challenging because of over- lapping observations. We show that the size of the test based on the popular Hodrick standard errors can approach one if the horizon grows at a faster rate than the rotated norm of short-run predictability...

Trade economists measure misreporting at the importer’s customs by comparing the export value reported at the exporter’s customs with the import value reported at the importer’s customs. The more significant the gap, the larger the extent of misreporting by the importer motivated by...

The objective of measuring poverty is usually to make comparisons over time or between two or more groups. Common statistical inference methods are used to determine whether an apparent difference in measured poverty is statistically significant. Studies of relative poverty have long recognized...

Purpose - This study examines the relationship between demand forecasting error and retail inventory management in an uncertain supplier yield context. Replenishment is segmented into off-season and peak-season, with the former characterized by longer lead times and higher supply uncertainty. In...

This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized...