The degree of mobility in incomes is often seen as an important measure of the equality of opportunity in a society and of the flexibility and freedom of its labor market. But estimation of mobility using panel data is biased by the presence of measurement error and non-random attrition from the...

It has been drawn to the editors' attention that 'EU Integration, Europeanization and Administrative Convergence: The Greek Case' by Konstantinos J. Papadoulis, published in JCMS Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 349-70, bears a strong similarity to 'European Integration in Administrative Terms: A Framework...

Feenstra and Hanson [NBER Working Paper No. 6052 (1997)] propose a procedure to correct the standard errors in a two-stage regression with generated dependent variables. Their method has subsequently been used in two-stage mandated wage models [Feenstra and Hanson, Quarterly Journal of Economics...

For a time series generated by polynomial trend with stationary long-memory errors, the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) of the trend coefficients is asymptotically normal, provided the error process is linear. The asymptotic distribution may no longer be normal, if the error is in the...

We will analyse the optimal incentive scheme when the risk-neutral principal contracts with many risk-averse agents. Each agent produces an individual contribution which jointly form a total output. Agents' efforts are unobservable and the principal cannot observe individual outputs without an...

Over time, economic statistics are refined. This means that newer data are typically less well measured than old data. Time or vintage-variation in measurement error like this influences how forecasts should be made. Measurement error is obviously not directly observable. This paper shows that...

This paper explores the effects of measurement error on dynamic forecasting models. It illustrates a trade-off that confronts forecasters and policymakers when they use data that are measured with error. On the one hand, observations on recent data give valuable clues as to the shocks that are...

A well-known puzzle in international finance is that a random walk predicts exchange rates better than economic models. I offer a potential explanation. When exchange rates and fundamentals are highly persistent, long-horizon forecasts of economic models are biased by the estimation error. When...

This paper documents that inflation forecasts of the Federal Reserve systematically under-predicted inflation before Volker's appointment as Chairman and systematically over-predicted it afterward. It also documents that, under quadratic loss, commercial forecasts have information not contained...

The standard, representative agent, consumption-based asset pricing theory based on CRRA utility fails to explain the average returns of risky assets. When evaluated on cross- sections of stock returns, the model generates economically large unconditional Euler equation errors. Unlike the equity...