We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty – such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary...

Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they obtain. We test this hypothesis in a randomized experiment...

Given several studies (inputs) of some phenomenon of interest, each input presents an estimate of a key parameter with an associated estimated precision. The random-effects model used in meta-analysis estimates this parameter based on a decomposition of the error term into within-input noise and...

We propose a methodology to construct tests for the null hypothesis that the pricing errors of a panel of asset returns are jointly equal to zero in a linear factor asset pric- ing model - that is, the null of "zero alpha". We consider, as a leading example, a model with observable, tradable...

This study introduces Members of the European Parliament to the different estimates of the level of error affecting EU expenditure in cohesion policy. It explains how the European Commission calculates the estimated 'risk at payment' and 'risk at closure', how the European Court of Auditors...

This study introduces Members of the European Parliament to the different estimates of the level of error affecting EU expenditure in cohesion policy. It explains how the European Commission calculates the estimated 'risk at payment' and 'risk at closure', how the European Court of Auditors...