Accurate macroeconomic forecasts are essential for effective policy decisions, yet their precision depends on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. This paper examines the extent to which assumption errors affect forecast accuracy, introducing the average squared assumption error (ASAE) as...

We assess the reliability of measured farm sizes (ownership holdings) in the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia and Malawi based on three survey rounds (2012, 2014, 2016) in Ethiopia and four rounds (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019) in Malawi....

Using longitudinal, nationally representative data from Australia, this study uncovers a previously undocumented pattern: in over half of cases where one household member reports weather-related home damage, their co-resident does not. This high rate of intra-household inconsistency is striking,...

We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b)...

We contribute new cross-national evidence about the nature of measurement errors in employment earnings, fitting the same error components model to harmonised earnings data for Austria and the UK. The model allows for measurement error in the administrative data and linkage error as well as...

The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning's budget implementation reports reveal large fiscal forecast errors over the 2011-2023 period, for a range of fiscal aggregates including total revenues, expenditures, and the fiscal deficit. Revenues forecasts errors are driven by optimistic budget...