During the 2017 presidential campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump was open about his hostility toward Iran and his disdain for the Obama administration’s diplomacy with that country. Since January, the Trump administration has been engaged in an Iran policy review. News reports and leaks...

The stochastic error distance (SED) introduced by Diebold & Shin (2017) ranks forecast models by divergence between distributions of the errors of the actual and prefect forecast models. The basic SED is defined by the variation distance and provides a representation of the mean absolute error,...

Accurately measuring government benefit receipt in household surveys is necessary when studying disadvantaged populations and the programs that serve them. The Food Stamp Program is especially important given its size and recent growth. To validate survey reports, we use administrative data on...

Earnings nonresponse in household surveys is widespread, yet there is limited knowledge of how nonresponse biases earnings measures. We examine the consequences of nonresponse on earnings gaps and inequality using Current Population Survey individual records linked to administrative earnings...

This paper focuses on the estimation and predictive performance of several estimators for the time-space dynamic panel data model with Spatial Moving Average Random Effects (SMA-RE) structure of the disturbances. A dynamic spatial Generalized Moments (GM) estimator is proposed which combines the...

This paper considers the problem of estimating treatment effects when there is a large number of potential control units. The paper introduces to the economics literature the idea of polytope volume minimization as a method of estimating a factor model when observed outcomes are assumed to be a...