Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions...

I show that the probability that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System staff's forecasts (the "Greenbooks'") overpredicted quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth depends on both the forecast horizon and also whether the forecasted quarter was above or below trend real...

This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment...

In regression discontinuity design (RD), for a given bandwidth, researchers can estimate standard errors based on different variance formulas obtained under different asymptotic frameworks. In the traditional approach the bandwidth shrinks to zero as sample size increases; alternatively, the...

Intergenerational mobility is often studied using survey data. In such settings, selective unit or item non-response may bias estimates. Linking Dutch survey data to administrative income data allows us to examine whether selective responses bias the estimated relationship between parental...

This paper proposes a simple nonparametric test of the hypothesis of no measurement error in explanatory variables and of the hypothesis that measurement error, if there is any, does not distort a given object of interest. We show that, under weak assumptions, both of these hypotheses are...

There is potential for measurement problems in both retrospective and panel microdata. In this paper, we compare results on basic indicators related to labor markets and their dynamics from retrospective and panel survey data in Egypt, in order to determine the conditions under which results are...