The analysis of highly structured data requires models with unobserved components (random effects) able to adequately account for the patterns of variances and correlations. The specification of the unobserved components is a key and challenging task. In this paper, we first review the...

This paper uses a RCT to estimate the effectiveness of guided instruction methods as implemented in under-performing schools in Chile. The intervention improved performance substantially for the first cohort of students, but not the second. The effect is mainly accounted for by children from...

Mortality risk varies geographically, especially in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, where economic development is quite diverse. We present a newly-collected dataset on aggregate population mortality from eleven countries in APAC, which we rank based on their economic development. Using lead-lag...

Firms using online advertising regularly run experiments with multiple versions of their ads since they are uncertain about which ones are most effective. Within a campaign, firms try to adapt to intermediate results of their tests, optimizing what they earn while learning about their ads. But...

This analysis of the 2020 OECD multidimensional fragility framework is a background paper for States of Fragility 2020. It provides a snapshot of the state of fragility in the world today, paying particular attention to the 57 fragile contexts on the framework. The paper starts by unpacking the...

In 2022, the OECD will add a human capital dimension to its fragility framework in acknowledgement of the ambition set forth in States of Fragility 2018 to “never lose sight of the end goal of delivering hope and better lives for all people in fragile contexts”. The COVID-19 pandemic and its...