RESTART is a widely applicable accelerated simulation technique that allows the evaluation of extremely low probabilities. In this method a number of retrials (or paths) are made when the process reaches certain thresholds of a function of the system state, called the importance function. In...

RESTART is a widely applicable accelerated simulation technique that allows the evaluation of extremely low probabilities. In this method a number of retrials (or paths) are made when the process reaches certain thresholds of a function of the system state, called the importance function. In...

In this article we consider the efficient estimation of the tail distribution of the maximum of correlated normal random variables. We show that the currently recommended Monte Carlo estimator has difficulties in quantifying its precision, because its sample variance estimator is an inefficient...

Loan syndication increases bank interconnectedness through co-lending relationships. We study the financial stability implications of such dependency on syndicate partners in the presence of shocks to banks' capital. Model simulations in a network setting show that such shocks can produce rare...