In this study, we compare simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates under a Taylor rule formation for the U.S. economy to figure out if there exists any improvement in the estimation of inflation and output when a theoretically convincing definition of money i.e., Divisia money, is utilized....

Since the mid-1990s, low stock returns predict accommodating policy by the Federal Reserve. This fact emerges because, over this period, negative stock returns comove with downgrades to the Fed’s growth expectations. Textual analysis of the FOMC documents reveals that policymakers pay...

The research question relates to the quantitative impact of government bond purchases of the European Central Bank on inflation and other economic variables at the zero lower bound. At the core is a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with several financial...

Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage in knowing the path of future monetary policy. We evaluate the Fed’s forecast advantage to determine how much of...

We estimate the response of interest rates to inflation using data for 18 developed countries since 1915, within 30-year moving windows. Until 1972, interest rates are virtually insensitive to inflation. From then on, the interest-rate response to inflation starts to rise, and monetary policy...

The Taylor Rule is widely considered a useful tool to summarise the Fed’s policy, but the information set employed in practice to assess the state of economic activity is still an object of debate. The contribution of this paper is to provide evidence in favour of the following hypotheses....