We analyze the period before the zero lower bound and show that the state of investor sentiment strongly affects the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market. The impact of Federal funds rate (FFR) surprises is mostly potent when sentiment-driven overvaluation is followed by a...

Long-term bond yields contain a risk-premium, an important part of which is compensation for inflation risks. The substantial increase in the Fed funds rate in the mid-2000s did not raise long-term US Treasury yields due to the reduction in the term premium (so-called Greenspan conundrum) which...

A long-standing issue in the theory of monetary policy is that the same path for the interest rate can be associated with multiple bounded equilibrium paths for inflation and output. We show that a small friction in memory and intertemporal coordination can remove this indeterminacy. This leaves...

In Africa, a number of countries like South Africa have adopted inflation targeting. In Nigeria, different monetary policy regimes have been adopted over the years with rather unsatisfactory success. This study examines inflation targeting in Nigeria and South Africa, using fully modified least...

(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are "test, test, and test". The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992-2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Monetary policy is forward-looking, and as part...

This article develops the first granular database on daily real-time inflation rates and output. Four different European forecast sources and three computation methods are applied to calculate those daily data. These are used in two types of monetary policy rules, for three different interest...