The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on...

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response,...

No, the Fed does not appear to play politics with respect to setting the federal funds rate. We examine the federal funds spot and futures rates to infer the Fed's response to political pressure from partisan politics during election and nonelection years. We find little evidence that political...

Applying a reduced form equation derived from a simultaneous system and the interactive dummy variable technique, this paper finds that expected real depreciation raises real output for Hungary in early years whereas expected real appreciation increases real output in later years. Hence, there...

I estimate a reaction function for the ECB using an ordered logit model for the period 1999-2009. Allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another, I detect a rapid change in middle of 2008.