Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

Die Zeiten, in denen die amtliche Statistik ein Monopol auf statistische Fakten hatte, sind vorbei. Stattdessen wächst die Datenmenge durch die Digitalisierung exponentiell. Permanent entstehen neue Daten und neue Datenanbieter. Der Aufsatz zeigt die konkrete Antwort der amtlichen Statistik auf...

Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real‐time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real‐time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions...

Official estimates of economic growth are regularly revised and therefore forecasts for GDP growth are done on the basis of ever-changing data. The economic literature has intensively studied the properties of those revisions and their implications for forecasting models. However, it is much...

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model...

Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...