Search Results - subject:"Real Time data"

Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?

Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2010

Credible fiscal plans that aim at restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential to counter the present increase in debt levels all across Europe. The macroeconomic scenario of such plans will be crucial. This paper assesses whether there is any advantage in delegating (part of) such power to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008595655

Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters

Liebermann, Joelle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

, attributable to judgment, is weak over our sample. Then, as one moves forward along the real-time data flow, the continuous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839204

Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?

Genre, Véronique; Kenny, Geoff; Meyler, Aidan; … - European Central Bank - 2010

In this paper, we explore the potential gains from alternative combinations of the surveyed forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our analysis encompasses a variety of methods including statistical combinations based on principal components analysis and trimmed means,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008752569

Lessons from the latest data on U.S. productivity

Jacobs, Jan P.A.M; Norden, Simon van - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2010

Productivity growth is carefully scrutinized by macroeconomists because it plays key roles in understanding private savings behaviour, the sources of macroeconomic shocks, the evolution of international competitiveness and the solvency of public pension systems, among other things. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764363

Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions

Clements, Michael P.; Galvão, Ana Beatriz - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2010

We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include au-toregressive terms by estimating the models on ‘lightly-revised’data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764449

ECB Policy Making and the Financial Crisis

Gorter, Janko; Stolwijk, Fauve; Jacobs, Jan; Haan, Jakob de - de Nederlandsche Bank - 2010

We estimate Taylor rule models for the euro area using Consensus Economics forecasts of inflation and output growth for the period 1998.6-2010.8. We first examine whether the recent financial crisis has affected ECB policies. Our results indicate that the ECB puts stronger emphasis on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774018

the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - Department of Economics, European University Institute - 2010

by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008631555

Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation

Tierney, Heather L.R. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

persistence model. Keeping the number of observations the same, the regression parameters of earlier vintages of real-time data …, beginning with vintage 1996:Q1, are tested for coincidence against the regression parameters of the last vintage of real-time … data used in this paper, which is vintage 2008:Q2 in a parametric and two nonparametric frameworks. The effects of data …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636481

Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED

Banternghansa, Chanont; McCracken, Michael W. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2010

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED real-time database. We consider averages taken over a variety of different bivariate VAR models that are distinguished from one another based upon at least one of the following: which variables are used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008679685

Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009

Smant, David; D.J.C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

Estimates of Taylor rule equations for Federal Reserve policy over periods before the Greenspan period are misleading. Until 1979 Fed policy changed the real funds rate in response to the output gap, with no response to an inflation target. During the Volcker period the policy rule kept the real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684860