Search Results - subject:"Real Time data"

Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2009

, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging from the … use of non-modified real time data instead of real-time data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both effects … inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the current …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265809

Does the ECB rely on a Taylor rule? Comparing ex-post with real time data

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2009

. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging … from the use of non-modified real time data instead of realtime data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both … estimated inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271158

Does the ECB rely on a Taylor rule? Comparing ex-post with real time data

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2009

. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging … from the use of non-modified real time data instead of real-time data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both … estimated inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327313

Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World

Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2009

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143721

A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data

Cunningham, Alastair; Eklund, Jana; Jeffery, Chris; … - 2009

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280737

Evaluating short-run forecasting properties of the KOF employment indicator for Switzerland in real time

Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009

This study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285821

Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285824

Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2009

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts that use activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips-curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287147

Season’s greetings and seasonal adjustments

Gascon, Charles S. - In: Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter (2009) January

Have you every wondered what the term "seasonally adjusted" means in relation to economic data? What does the change of seasons have to do with economics? The January 2009 Newsletter explains the term and shows its effect on economic data.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727561

Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

Paap, Richard; Groen, Groen, J.J.J. - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731569